Awesome Prediction Markets

APIs, datasets, tools, and research for building on prediction markets. For developers and AI agents, not dashboards.

Prediction markets are the best real-time source of calibrated probability for world events. This list focuses on what you need to build with that data — APIs to fetch it, tools to process it, datasets to train on, and research to understand it.

Pull requests welcome. See contributing guidelines.

— Interactive notebook: world state, market search, trade ideas, contagion detection, and more.

Quick Start — Get a Price in 30 Seconds

# Kalshi — what are the markets?
curl -s "https://trading-api.kalshi.co/trade-api/v2/markets?limit=3" | jq '.markets[] | {title, yes_ask, volume}'

# Polymarket — current markets
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/markets?limit=3" | jq '.[] | {question, tokens[0].price}'

# SimpleFunctions — scan any topic, no auth
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=oil"

# SimpleFunctions — what changed in the last hour
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/changes"

API Comparison

Which platform fits your use case?

Contents

• Exchanges & Platforms
• APIs & SDKs
• MCP Servers
• CLI Tools
• Agent Frameworks & Examples
• Data & Datasets
• Aggregators & Cross-Venue
• Economic & Macro Data
• Analytics & Research Tools
• Tutorials & Guides
• Strategy & Market Structure
• Selected Reading
• Academic Papers
• Project Ideas
• Community

Exchanges & Platforms

Active prediction market platforms with programmatic access.

APIs & SDKs

Multi-Venue

• SimpleFunctions API — Unified REST API for Kalshi + Polymarket. Thesis management, edge detection, what-if scenarios, track record feedback. Free during beta.
• SimpleFunctions CLI — 42 terminal commands for prediction market intelligence. Scan, watch, trade, agent mode.

Kalshi

• Kalshi Official API — REST + WebSocket. Requires account for trading endpoints; market data is public.
• kalshi-python — Official Python client.
• KalshiClientsGo — Official Go client.
• kalgon — Unofficial Python SDK with order management.

Polymarket

• Polymarket CLOB API — Central limit order book. REST + WebSocket.
• py-clob-client — Official Python client for the CLOB.
• clob-client — Official TypeScript client.
• polymarket-rs — Rust SDK.

Metaculus

• Metaculus API — Public question and forecast data.
• metaculusr — R client for Metaculus data.

Manifold

• Manifold API — Full market CRUD, betting, comments.
• manifoldpy — Python client.
• PyManifold — Alternative Python client.

MCP Servers

Connect LLMs to prediction market data via the Model Context Protocol.

• SimpleFunctions MCP — 25 tools: thesis management, edge detection, market search, trading, what-if scenarios. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Windsurf.

  claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
  

• prediction-market-mcp-example — Minimal 50-line MCP server for learning. Search markets, get context, price changes.
• us-gov-open-data-mcp — 300+ tools across 40+ U.S. government APIs. FRED, Treasury, BLS, Congress, FDA, EPA, SEC. Selective module loading.
• fred-mcp-server — FRED economic data for Claude/Cursor.
• mcp-fredapi — FRED API with series search and category browsing.
• imf-data-mcp — IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.

CLI Tools

• SimpleFunctions CLI — sf scan, sf edges, sf watch, sf agent, sf intent. Covers Kalshi + Polymarket.

  npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf setup
  

• polymarket-cli — Official Polymarket CLI for order placement.

Agent Frameworks & Examples

Building AI agents that reason over prediction market data.

Frameworks

• LangChain — Wrap any prediction market API as a LangChain tool. Integration guide.
• CrewAI — Multi-agent crews for market analysis. Integration guide.
• AutoGen — Microsoft's multi-agent framework. Works with any REST API.
• OpenAI Agents SDK — Lightweight agent framework with handoffs and guardrails.

Example Projects

• prediction-market-context — Fetch structured market context for any LLM. One function call.
• causal-tree-decomposition — Standalone probability engine. Decompose a thesis into a causal tree, compute weighted confidence.
• kalshi-price-monitor — Terminal price alert monitor for Kalshi markets.
• polymarket-marketmaking — Market making bot for Polymarket.
• nevbot — Manifold market maker using OpenAI to answer questions.

Data & Datasets

Live Data

• SimpleFunctions /api/changes — Real-time cross-venue price changes. No auth required.
• SimpleFunctions /api/public/context — Structured market context for any topic. No auth required.
• Kalshi Market Data — All active markets, orderbook, trade history.
• Polymarket CLOB Data — Markets, orderbook, trades.
• Metaculus API — Questions, forecasts, community predictions.
• MetaForecast — Aggregated forecasts across platforms.

Historical Datasets

• Kalshi Historical Data — Settlement data for resolved markets.
• Polymarket Subgraph — On-chain data via The Graph.
• Manifold Markets Data — Full market history including bets.
• Good Judgment Open — Crowd forecasting data with track records.
• Metaculus Data Export — Historical question and resolution data.

Aggregators & Cross-Venue

• SimpleFunctions — Kalshi + Polymarket unified. Edge detection across venues.
• MetaForecast — Aggregates Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold, Good Judgment, and more.
• Oddpool — Cross-venue odds, spreads, liquidity, arbitrage detection.
• BaseRateTimes — News through the lens of prediction markets.
• Electionbettingodds.com — Aggregated political prediction market odds.

Economic & Macro Data

The context layer for prediction markets — the economic indicators, government data, and macro signals that drive the events prediction markets trade on.

Aggregator Platforms

• OpenBB — Open-source financial data platform (65K+ stars). Covers FRED, World Bank, BLS, Eurostat, and hundreds of other data sources. Python, CLI, and AI agent integration.
• pandas-datareader — Extract data from FRED, World Bank, OECD, Eurostat, Stooq, and more into pandas DataFrames. The standard Python library for economic data access.
• DBnomics — Aggregates 80+ statistical providers (central banks, national statistics offices, international organizations). R client, Julia client, Stata client. Free API, no auth.
• findatapy — Download market data from Bloomberg, Eikon, Quandl, FRED and more via a unified interface.

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

• fredapi — Python client for FRED. pip install fredapi. Supports series search, vintages, releases.
• fredr — R client for FRED API. On CRAN.
• fred-rs — Rust crate for FRED.
• fredcpp — C++ client for FRED.
• FredApi.jl — Julia package for FRED.
• fredric — Ruby library and CLI for FRED.
• fred-mcp-server — MCP server for FRED data in Claude/Cursor.
• mcp-fredapi — Another FRED MCP server with search and category browsing.

Federal Reserve & Central Banks

• FRB — Python client for all Federal Reserve Bank data (not just FRED — includes flow of funds, financial accounts, survey data).
• econ_data — Python notebooks demonstrating FRED, BLS, Census, and BEA API usage with working examples.

World Bank

• wbdata — Python library for World Bank data. Tested: pulls GDP per capita for any country/date range. No auth.
• world_bank_data — Python library with pandas integration. Tested: pulls CPI inflation for US/CN/GB/BR. No auth.
• WDI — R package for World Bank data. On CRAN, 250+ stars.
• WorldBankData.jl — Julia package for World Bank data.

BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• blscrapeR — R package for BLS data (unemployment, CPI, wages). 117 stars.
• blsAPI — R client for BLS API. 93 stars.
• BLS-APIs — Python wrapper for BLS v1/v2 APIs.
• BLS API v1 requires no auth key: curl https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/LNS14000000

IMF

• IMFData — R package for IMF data. 49 stars.
• imf-data-mcp — MCP server for IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.
• IMF API requires no auth: https://data.imf.org (SDMX 3.0)

Eurostat

• eurostat-api-client — Python client for Eurostat data.
• eurostat_downloader — Python tool for bulk Eurostat downloads.
• Eurostat API requires no auth: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/

Multi-Agency / Government

• us-gov-open-data-mcp — MCP server + TypeScript SDK for 40+ U.S. government APIs (300+ tools). Covers FRED, Treasury, BLS, Census, EPA, FDA, SEC, Congress, and more. 20+ APIs need no auth key. 94 stars.

OECD

• OECD Data API requires no auth: https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/ (SDMX format)

Analytics & Research Tools

• Polymarket Analytics — Market stats and analytics.
• PolymarketStats — Open source Polymarket analytics.
• Kalshi Research — Market insights and analysis from Kalshi.

Tutorials & Guides

Getting Started

• Your First Prediction Market Trade from CLI — Step-by-step walkthrough from install to trade.
• Kalshi API Quick Start (JavaScript + Python) — Fetch markets, place orders, handle auth.
• Connect an AI Agent to Prediction Markets in 5 Minutes — Fastest path to a working agent.
• 5 Ways to Connect Your AI Agent to Prediction Markets — MCP, REST, CLI, LangChain, CrewAI compared.

Building Agents

• How to Build a World-Aware Claude Agent — MCP + Claude Code tutorial.
• How to Build a World-Aware LangChain Agent — Python + LangChain tutorial.
• How to Build a World-Aware CrewAI Crew — Multi-agent crew tutorial.
• How to Build a World-Aware OpenAI Agent — OpenAI Agents SDK tutorial.
• How to Build a World-Aware Mistral Agent — Mistral + function calling tutorial.
• Setting Up Your First Prediction Market Agent — Architecture and design patterns.

Trading Systems

• How to Build a Prediction Market Trading Bot — Full architecture from data to execution.
• Thesis to Execution: Full Trading Loop — Create thesis → detect edges → size positions → execute.
• Automate the Thesis Lifecycle — Create, monitor, and trade automatically.
• Running a 24/7 Trading Agent: Architecture & Costs — Infrastructure, monitoring, cost breakdown.
• Pipe Prediction Market Signals into Your Trading System — Webhooks, polling, event-driven.

Orderbooks & Market Microstructure

• Understanding Prediction Market Orderbooks — Complete guide to reading and interpreting.
• Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks — Practical guide with examples.
• How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks — Programmatic orderbook scanning.
• Quantitative Orderbook Analysis — Depth, imbalance, flow analysis.
• Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Depth, Spread, Liquidity — What the orderbook tells you.

Edge Detection & Sizing

• Edge Calculation: Theory to Execution — How to calculate and verify edges.
• Cross-Venue Edge Detection: Kalshi vs Polymarket — Find mispricings between venues.
• Position Sizing with Kelly Criterion — Optimal bet sizing for prediction markets.
• How to Backtest a Prediction Market Strategy — Backtesting framework and pitfalls.

Strategy & Market Structure

How Prediction Markets Work

• How to Read the World Through Prediction Market Prices — Prices as compressed beliefs.
• News Tells You What Happened, Prediction Markets Tell You What's Happening — Why markets are faster than news.
• Prediction Markets Are the Best Real-Time Sensor for World Events — The case for markets as data infrastructure.
• Three Data Sources: Belief, Action, Sentiment — How prediction markets fit in the data landscape.
• The Prediction Market Data Stack — From raw prices to actionable intelligence.

Concepts & Frameworks

• Why Your AI Agent Needs a Thesis, Not Just Data — Structured beliefs beat raw signals.
• Causal Tree Decomposition Beats Vibes-Based Trading — Quantify your reasoning.
• The Most Important Number Is the Delta — Why changes matter more than levels.
• Orderbooks Are Fossilized Beliefs — What resting orders reveal.
• 5 Patterns That Kill Prediction Market Traders — Common failure modes and how to avoid them.

Platform Comparisons

• Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Trade? — Fees, liquidity, regulation, API compared.
• Kalshi vs Polymarket Technical Comparison — API, auth, data model differences.
• SimpleFunctions vs Oddpool vs Raw Kalshi API — When to use which tool.
• Prediction Markets vs Polls — Why markets outperform surveys.

Selected Reading

Primers

• Prediction Market FAQ — Scott Alexander's comprehensive overview.
• Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets — Taxonomy of market types.
• The Making of a Top Forecaster — Techniques from top INFER forecasters.
• Play Money and Reputation Systems — When play money markets work.

Strategy & Structure

• Market Mechanics — How prediction market mechanics work.
• Incentive Problems with Forecasting — Why prediction markets have structural biases.
• Amplifying Research via Forecasting (Part 1) and Part 2 — Using forecasters to evaluate research claims.

AI & Prediction Markets

• LLMs as Forecasters — Can language models predict the future?
• Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models — GPT-4 calibration on forecasting tasks.

Academic Papers

• Prediction Markets: Theory, Evidence, and Applications — Wolfers & Zitzewitz (2004). The canonical survey.
• The Wisdom of Crowds — Surowiecki. Why aggregated forecasts beat experts.
• Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting — Handbook chapter on using markets for macro forecasting.
• Manipulating Prediction Markets: Evidence from the Field — How hard is it to move a prediction market?
• Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders — Ostrovsky (2012). Theory of information aggregation.

Project Ideas

Things you can build with the APIs and tools above.

Community

• Metaculus Community — Active forecasting community with scoring and track records.
• r/predictionmarkets — Reddit community.
• Manifold Discord — Active developer community.
• Polymarket Discord — Trading and data discussion.
• Scott Alexander's Mantic Monday — Weekly prediction market commentary.

Contributing

1. Fork this repo
2. Add your resource to the appropriate section
3. Keep descriptions short (one line)
4. Include a link to source code or documentation
5. Submit a PR

What belongs here: APIs, SDKs, datasets, code, tools, research, papers, tutorials. Things developers use to build.

What doesn't belong: Consumer dashboards, portfolio trackers, copy-trading services, news aggregators without an API. Check Awesome Prediction Market Tools for those.

License

MIT